A litmus test for BJP
Despite various surveys predicting easy win for BJP, ground realities indicate UP will be far from a smooth sailing for the saffron party, reports Mudit Mathur
Amid apparent cracks surfaced after desertion of three prominent OBC ministers and 11 MLAs and pre-poll forecasts predicting comfortable victory for BJP–the much-hyped overconfidence of BJP stalwarts of winning with thumping majority over 300 seats seems to be a distant dream in the Uttar Pradesh. With no apparent sympathy or nationalism wave visible this time, unlike 2019 Lok Sabha elections focusing retaliatory Balakot airstrikes, the UP has turned out to be a biggest testing ground for the future discourse of Hindutva aggression with a larger outreach of BJP––through brand Modi––Yogi––versus forces of social justice struggling for their overall development and empowerment in the social, political and administrative setups.
No doubt that UP is heading for a bipolar contest by a large between Samajwadi Party alliance and ruling BJP alliance but Congress Party is also expected to do better and the silent strategy of BSP supremo Mayawati cannot be overlooked as she is betting on Dalit-Muslim-Brahmin combination by giving tickets to Muslims and Upper castes candidates besides her Dalit supporters. Aam Aadmi Party (Aap) has knocked its inception presence in some pockets but its influence area is almost negligible.
The people’s perception is fast changing about BJP which has lost its image of invincibility after West Bengal debacle and in UP it is carrying a heavy burden of anti-incumbency coupled with amaranthine subconscious memories of unimaginable atrocities inflicted upon weaker sections and farmers’ distress on various counts including their inhuman massacre in Lakhimpur Kheri during yearlong agitation over three farm laws which saw more than 700 deaths of farmers. Mishandling of farmers agitation also multiplied challenges before BJP to regain power of politically most crucial state that determine political route to power in the Centre which is due in 2024.
The efforts of Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi to transform political dynamics of caste-based polity with setting forth developmental agenda ensuring political accountability of its elected representatives–through her awareness and empowerment campaign for women–”Ladki Hoon––Lad Sakti Hoon,” (I am a girl––I can fight), which had taken a buck after she conceded possibilities of a post poll alliance with compatible non-BJP partners during her recent media interaction. Her efforts were aimed at consolidation of non-BJP votes through her outspokenness with a clear heart and mindset. The base of Congress Party ruined in the state ever since politics of caste and religion begun in late eighties to counter each other.
