Regional satraps may queer the pitch for BJP in 2024 polls

The results of the by-polls in 29 assembly and three parliamentary constituencies held across 13 states and one Union Territory indicate that the BJP will face a stiff challenge from regional parties and strong state leaders.

The BJP will face a stiff challenge from regional parties and strong state leaders in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections if the recent by-polls in 29 assembly and three parliamentary constituencies across 13 states and one Union Territory are an indicator.

The assembly by-elections covered most regions of the country and were held in five seats in Assam, four seats in West Bengal, three seats each in Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Meghalaya, two seats each in Bihar, Karnataka and Rajasthan and one seat each in Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Maharashtra, Mizoram and Telangana.

Earlier, out of the 29 Assembly seats, the BJP had won in around half a dozen constituencies, the Congress had nine, while the rest were with the regional parties.

The by-elections assumed significance as they were held just a few months ahead of the polls in five states, including politically critical Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur where battle lines have already been drawn for the contests early next year.

Voting for the by-polls, which were being watched keenly across the country as an indicator of which way the political winds were blowing, was held on October 30. The results were out on November 3.

Over the past years, the Congress has been trying to take on the BJP, but the real challenge to the saffron party has come from the regional parties be it the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, former BJP ally Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra,  Rashtra Samithi in Telangana, YSRC in Andhra Pradesh, DMK in Tamil Nadu, the CPI-M in Kerala, the PDP and NC in Jammu and Kashmir, AAP in Delhi, SP in Uttar Pradesh and RJD in Bihar and JMM in Jharkhand.

Most of them have been working together with the Congress to forge an anti-BJP national front for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But that battle is a good two and half years away.

The most important message from the latest round of by-elections is that the voters have made it clear that they have a mind of their own, are concerned about real development and do not get carried away by any kind of propaganda, whatever be its shade.