Indicators are there pointing to the emergence of a new set of political equations in the state’s bipolar politics. It appears this possible shakeup is directly linked to the entry of AAP and the development is likely to dent the Congress more than the BJP. A report by Raju William
Who will win the Assembly elections slated for this December in Gujarat, the home state of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is a question, the answer to which is being feverishly speculated about. This western India state has been under the rule of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the last more than 25 years. The point of interest mainly is whether BJP reign under Modi remains unchallenged and how much electoral ground both the BJP and the Congress may cede with emergence of a third alternative in the form of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
The elections are about two months away. Though its date has not been announced yet, the campaigning is well under way. Except Arvind Kejriwal, national Convener of the AAP, no big leader of other two main contenders, the BJP and the Congress, has yet paid election mode visits. Hectic strategizing, however, is on within the parties and moves are being changed given fluidity of the situation.
At this stage, the situation on the ground appears fluid in terms of voters’ preferences. As it would appear rather naïve to comment on what might be the final outcome, yet indicators are there pointing to emergence of a new set of political equations in the state’s bipolar politics. It appears this possible shakeup is directly linked to the entry of AAP and happening so is likely to dent the Congress more than the BJP.
Indeed, the BJP is quite well entrenched and the Congress not being viewed with enthusiasm, there is a perceptible public tilt in the favour of the AAP. This gain, being predicted to increase provided the party does not commit strategic mistakes, comes from its thumping electoral victory in March this year in Punjab and repeating the government in Delhi two years ago. Riding its soaring reputation as a party which brought in a people-centric model of governance, the AAP seems to be getting traction at least in a section of voters in the initial phase of its campaigning despite being a new entrant in the electoral politics of the state. The 17% vote share predicted in the recent C-Voter survey explains this.
