This radical splitting of constituencies has also been done in South Kashmir, a traditional stronghold of the People’s Democratic Party. For example, the Shangus tehsil has been split between Anantnag East and Larnoo constituencies. Similarly, Kokernag constituency has also been split between Larnoo and Dooru.
Kulgam, another South Kashmir district that earlier had four Assembly seats will now have only three with one of its seats Hom Shali Bugh being included in the Devsar constituency in the district.
Srinagar district will now have a separate constituency in Chanpora area. It is being created by redrawing some other constituencies of the district.
Another far-reaching change is the redrawing of the Anantnag constituency in South Kashmir by merging with it Rajouri and Poonch from the Jammu region.
J&K population statistics
With a population of around 13.6 million, J&K, according to Census 2011, has 68.3 percent Muslim population, while Hindus constitute 30 percent, Sikhs 2 percent and Buddhists, who inhabit the separated Ladakh region, a little more than 1 percent. The census shows the population of Kashmir as 69,07,623, Jammu as 53,50,811 and the now separated Ladakh as 2,90,492.
But when broken down into two regions – Kashmir and Jammu – a different picture emerges. Kashmir’s population of around 70 lakh is over 97 percent Muslim, with the remaining 3 percent comprising Kashmiri Pandits and Sikhs. In contrast, Jammu’s population of more than 53 lakh comprises 65 percent Hindus, 31 percent Muslims and 4 percent Sikhs.
The demographics of the majority of the Assembly constituencies in Kashmir Valley favours the majority community as all 47 constituencies are Muslim dominated. Similarly before delimitation, Muslims were in majority in around 17 of 37 constituencies of Jammu.
Power shift to Jammu
Six more seats to Jammu are expected to alter the electoral game. This is where the political engineering enters the picture. The BJP has a multi-pronged strategy to ensure there is Hindu consolidation in Jammu in its favour. It has already benefitted from this consolidation in three successive elections since 2014 – two parliamentary and one Assembly. In 2015 state election, the party won 25 of 37 seats in Jammu, enabling it to share power with the PDP which secured 28 seats, a predominant majority of these in Kashmir Valley.
But the reduction of the gap in the Assembly seats between Jammu and Kashmir is set to remake the political map of the union territory. The BJP which has a deep presence in Jammu could expect to have more political weight in the future J&K Assembly. And even if a Kashmir based party were to form or lead a future government, it would have little manoeuvring space to carry out its agenda or overturn the laws passed by the New Delhi backed administration over the last two years.
