The BJP emerged as a dominant political force in UP after Modi led the party to its second term majority in 2019 Lok Sabha polls but in the 2022 assembly polls, the Samajwadi Party managed to dent its prospects in the ‘poorvanchal’ (eastern) region by aligning with the Rajbhars, a rival faction of Apna Dal.
In less than a fortnight, many leaders from the opposition camp have joined the BJP in two phases, reinforcing its poll narrative in the run-up to 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Last week, SP MLA Dara Singh Chauhan quit the Assembly and joined BJP days after Om Prakash Rajbhar, leader of Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) had joined BJP-led NDA as its ally.
The Uttar Pradesh, which emerged BJP stronghold since 2014, Rajbhar joins OBC leaders like Sanjay Nishad, who enjoys influence among boatmen and fishermen communities, and Union Minister Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal (Soneylal), a party with support mostly among backward Kurmis. While Nishad had aligned his ‘Nishad’ party with the BJP ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Patel has been a BJP ally since 2014.
Many Samajwadi Party leaders have joined BJP, questioning the ability of Akhilesh Yadav to carry forward the legacy of Mulayam Singh Yadav, who has struggled to build strong Yadav-Muslims alliance and other backward castes consolidation under his leadership. Shalini Yadav, daughter-in-law of former Union Minister, Shyam Lal Yadav, during the Congress regime contested on Samajwadi Party ticket from Varanasi against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but now she joined BJP. She secured 18 percent votes against Modi. She had earlier contested the mayoral election from Varanasi on a Congress ticket but lost. Yadav and her family’s past association with various parties may help BJP consolidate Yadav votes in the region.
The defection of senior SP leaders like Sahab Singh Saini and former RLD MLA Rajpal Singh Saini, too, could help the BJP reinforce its base in west UP. Sahab Singh, a key political leader in Saharanpur, was an SP MLC and minister in the Akhilesh government. He started distancing from Akhilesh last year and later formed his outfit, Rashtriya Krantikari Morcha. SP MLA from Machhlishahr seat, Jagdish Sonkar, both in Jaunpur, too defected to BJP.
Rajpal Saini started his political career with BSP and won from Morna seat in Muzaffarnagar. He later joined SP and then RLD. In 2022, he contested from Khatauli on an RLD ticket but lost to BJP’s Vikram Saini. Saini was also Rajya Sabha MP (2010-2016) from RLD.
