Confetti is sprayed as PM Modi waves to supporters upon his arrival at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi to celebrate party victory in the recently held state assembly elections. A file photo
The Assembly verdicts across Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Assam have reshaped India’s political landscape, strengthening the BJP’s eastern expansion while weakening key regional allies of the INDIA bloc and raising doubts over the opposition’s future cohesion. A report by Tehelka Bureau
The Assembly verdicts across West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Assam have redrawn India’s political map in ways that extend far beyond state boundaries. For the BJP, the party’s surge in Bengal marks another significant milestone in its eastward expansion, even as its long-standing struggle to deepen its footprint in South India persists. An analysis by Tehelka Bureau
The saffron party managed to open fresh accounts in Kerala by winning three Assembly seats after drawing a blank in 2021, while securing only a solitary victory in Tamil Nadu. Yet, despite limited gains in the South, the BJP is likely to draw political satisfaction from the exit of outgoing Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, whose confrontations with the Centre had defined much of the past five years.
The results also underscored the uneven impact of anti-incumbency. While voter fatigue appeared decisive in West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the BJP comfortably bucked that trend in Assam, retaining power with relative ease and reinforcing its organisational dominance in the Northeast.
For the opposition INDIA bloc, however, the verdict has triggered a deeper moment of introspection. Electoral setbacks for two of its most influential regional pillars — Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu — have weakened the federal architecture on which the alliance was built. Both leaders had served as critical regional counterweights to the BJP, allowing the Congress to play a secondary but coordinating role within the coalition. Their diminished electoral standing now threatens to alter the balance of power within the opposition camp.
In West Bengal, the BJP’s aggressive gains in multiple segments signal a structural shift in a state that had long resisted the party’s expansion. The Modi-Shah plan, the RSS outreach and grassroots set-up worked for BJP in Bengal. The party dedicated its victory to Syama Prasad Mookerjee, the Bengal-born founder of the Jana Sangh, who left the Nehru Cabinet in 1951 to establish the BJP’s precursor. The turning point came under Narendra Modi’s leadership. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won two seats and secured a 17 per cent vote share. Between 2014 and 2026, a meticulous plan was executed, culminating in the party’s historic win. Bengal’s ideological importance—home to Mookerjee, Sri Aurobindo, Vivekananda, Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose, and Tagore—and its strategic border with Bangladesh made the state a priority. Modi assigned the task to Home Minister Amit Shah and state in-charge Sunil Bansal.
The strategy was comprehensive: booth-level organisation at all 80,719 polling stations, aided by the RSS’ grassroots network, gradually building voter share from 10 per cent in 2016 to 40 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Once the critical 40 per cent threshold was reached, a six-point swing was enough to secure victory. The campaign emphasised anti-infiltration rhetoric, the pro-CAA pitch for Hindu migrants from Bangladesh, the promise of UCC implementation, and free and fair polls with 2.4 lakh central forces deployed.
Suvendu Adhikari leaving the TMC and victory over Mamata Banerjee in 2021 was strategically crucial, complementing the BJP-RSS machinery. PM Modi’s 19 rallies, Shah’s Kolkata presence, and creative outreach—including football tournaments, Howrah Ganges cruises, and local cultural engagements—ensured maximum voter connection. Anti-corruption, pro-women policies, financial sops, and aggressive ED action against TMC leaders further strengthened the party’s appeal.
The BJP’s multi-pronged campaign—merging grassroots mobilisation, ideological messaging, and personal voter engagement—turned years of planning into historic results. A party insider said, “Historic 90 per cent plus voter turnout was not a coincidence. It was the result of meticulous efforts and planning.” With Bengal now under saffron influence, the party’s strategy demonstrates how organisational discipline, calculated outreach, and cultural resonance can decisively reshape a state’s political equation.
Jubilant over BJP performance, PM Narendra Modi said that there was lotus from Gangotri to Gangasagar. From salutations to Bengal-born Syama Prasad Mookerjee, founder of the Jana Sangh, the BJP’s precursor, to references to Rabindranath Tagore and national songwriter Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay, and a recall of how Anga, Banga, and Kalinga formed the pillars of India’s golden age, the PM said Bengal has seen a new sunrise today and rejected the politics of fear and violence.
Modi said, “Anga (Bihar), Banga (Bengal), and Kalinga (Odisha) were the three pillars of India’s golden era. For India to become a developed nation, these three pillars must be rejuvenated. Fortunately, the people of these three regions have chosen the BJP for the goal of Viksit Bharat,” the Prime Minister said, adding that women’s empowerment is another key pillar of a developed India. Borrowing from Gurudev Tagore’s Gitanjali, the PM said the BJP would usher in Bengal an atmosphere where “the mind is without fear and the head is held high”.
In Tamil Nadu, the DMK faced a fragmented mandate, with newer political entrants such as actor Vijay’s TVK eating into its traditional support base. The erosion of these regional strongholds has exposed the vulnerability of an opposition strategy heavily dependent on powerful state satraps.
For the Congress, the outcome remains mixed. The party secured a morale boost in Kerala with the Congress-led UDF returning to power, but it failed to convert its allies’ setbacks into wider national gains. Its organisational relevance in West Bengal remains marginal, while in Tamil Nadu it continues to rely more on alliance arithmetic than independent political growth.
Reacting to the verdict, Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah attributed the setbacks in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu largely to anti-incumbency, arguing that local dissatisfaction with incumbent governments shaped voter behaviour. Yet within the Congress, there is increasing recognition that the party may now have to assume a larger coordinating role within the INDIA bloc — a transition unlikely to be smooth.
Regional parties, despite weakened leverage, are expected to resist any restructuring that could dilute their autonomy. Senior opposition leaders indicate that consultations are likely in the coming weeks on leadership clarity, institutional decision-making and earlier seat-sharing arrangements. Privately, several leaders acknowledge that the absence of a coherent national framework has limited the bloc’s ability to respond effectively to state-specific political challenges.
The verdict also reflects a broader churn in voter behaviour. Anti-incumbency, coupled with the rise of new political players, has fragmented opposition votes across key states and weakened the electoral advantage traditionally enjoyed by established alliances. In Tamil Nadu, that fragmentation directly hurt the DMK-led alliance; in West Bengal, consolidation against the incumbent worked decisively in the BJP’s favour. The BJP also retained power in the Union Territory of Puducherry.
The next major test of this political recalibration will come in the 2027 Assembly elections across Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. For the Congress, these contests will serve as a crucial measure of organisational recovery and electoral viability ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
In Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa, the Congress is expected to face direct contests with the BJP, turning these states into a referendum on its grassroots strength. Punjab could witness a triangular battle involving the Congress, the ruling Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP-led alliance, where vote fragmentation may prove decisive once again. In larger battlegrounds such as Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, however, the challenge remains structural. Without sustained cadre-building and long-term organisational investment, immediate breakthroughs appear unlikely.
The implications for 2029 are increasingly clear. With key regional anchors weakened, the Congress faces a dual challenge: rebuilding its own organisational base while positioning itself as the principal axis of the opposition. Achieving that will require moving beyond dependence on alliances towards sharper messaging, stronger cadre mobilisation and state-specific political strategies.
Whether the INDIA bloc can evolve into a more coherent political formation — or continue as a loose coalition of regional interests — may well determine the shape of India’s opposition politics in the years leading up to the next general election.
West Bengal
How BJP built Bengal momentum
In any election, there is never just one reason behind how people vote. Outcomes are shaped by multiple forces working together over time. West Bengal has a population of roughly ten crore, with around six crore voters, figures that can be verified, but the larger point remains: no single factor explains such a political shift.
Over the past two years, I have travelled across almost every district in the state. Based on those observations, a clearer picture begins to emerge. There are 5 reasons for Mamata’s setback.
The most visible factor was strong anti-incumbency against the All India Trinamool Congress government. Fifteen years in power had inevitably created fatigue. Anti-incumbency, after all, is almost a law of nature: what rises eventually faces decline.
This factor was something I noticed consistently across districts: the rise of local strongmen. In many places, groups of ‘goons’ evolved into politically protected enforcers. They exercised control, often through intimidation, and gradually a culture of extortion took root. This was particularly visible in sectors like real estate; everything from sand supply to cement distribution became part of a larger network. For many, this system turned into a livelihood, but it also created a coercive structure where ordinary people had to pay “cuts” not just to local political figures but, in some cases, even to the police.
Small party offices often became centres of local authority, with individuals acting as power brokers. This was not hidden; it was visible on the ground. Even something as everyday as running e-rickshaws became tied to informal payments. Many drivers, sometimes without proper registration, paid local intermediaries to operate. And once such systems took hold, they became difficult to challenge. People endured it, but there was a growing desire to break free from it.
The major factor was a sense of disillusionment among sections of civil society. This was not always loud, but it was there. Closely linked to that was the impact of the education scam controversies, which significantly affected public perception.
The RG Kar issue further intensified concerns, especially around women’s safety. This had a crucial impact as women had been one of Mamata Banerjee’s strongest support bases. That support did not emerge overnight. It had been built over the years. Even during her tenure as railway minister, long before she became chief minister, she had introduced measures that benefited working-class women, especially those commuting daily for domestic work. Later, as Chief Minister, schemes like health coverage in women’s names, travel allowances for patients, and direct financial assistance such as Lakshmir Bhandar (₹1,500 per month) helped consolidate that base. However, this time, there was visible erosion.
What made the BJP tick
One reason was the counter-campaign led by Narendra Modi, who has his own strong appeal among women voters across India. Issues like safety and high-profile incidents began to weaken the earlier consolidation. He emphasised women’s safety and also highlighted that this time they would provide ₹ 3000 per month to women, which he had never promised before. During the 2021 election, he was completely against these schemes, indicating it was one of the reasons for unemployment, but that was not the right strategy to pick, he realised. The BJP are not shy to go for the same system.
The other point is about law and order, massively decorated with the increase in violence by the TMC goons. After Congress, CPM won the election, in which the goons of Congress shifted to the CPM as well. After CPM, the TMC again became an extension of bad CPM with goons, mafias, and lumpens. These decorations started increasing the violence in the state, especially during elections.
Another important shift came from the urban, educated middle class, the so-called ‘bhadralok’. Historically, this group had supported the Congress. They were typically against the Left, later shifting towards the Left during movements like Singur and Nandigram. Mamata had emerged as a political entrepreneur of that discontent. But over time, particularly after industrial setbacks such as the exit of the Tata project, that confidence began to erode again.
This erosion was visible even in constituencies like Bhawanipur, cosmopolitan, elite, and politically prestigious. Leaders like Syama Prasad Mukherjee and Siddhartha Shankar Ray had once contested from here. Yet, the shift in voter sentiment became evident.
The role of Suvendu Adhikari also stands out. Despite not coming from an elite urban background, he emerged as a strong and credible face, particularly in consolidating Hindu votes.
This brings us to another critical factor: religious polarisation. Traditionally, Muslim voters had strongly supported Mamata Banerjee. There was an expectation that this would continue, especially given concerns within the community about national-level politics under Modi and Amit Shah.
The BJP’s campaign strategy intensified polarisation. Labels and narratives were used aggressively, and in response, Mamata attempted a counter-balance through visible religious outreach, visiting temples and invoking cultural symbols, but they did not fully neutralise the narratives.
Moreover, the BJP managed to consolidate a large section of Hindu voters. There was also a perception, particularly in urban areas, that the state government was overly accommodating towards certain groups, even when issues of law and order were involved. Whether accurate or not, this perception had electoral consequences. Even symbolic issues such as state involvement in temple construction became talking points, further feeding into the broader narrative.
The next important factor is education. The sector has seen excessive politicisation over the years, followed by corruption and serious irregularities in recruitment, especially in teacher appointments. These issues have had a significant impact. It is not that the impact was absent earlier, but it was not clearly visible in the previous election. This time, however, the effect has become evident.
Additionally, the BJP’s organisational capacity was quite weak. Because of that, it could not effectively reach out to people or communicate these concerns on the ground. This time, however, the BJP has strengthened its organisational structure considerably. There has been a coordinated effort with the RSS. Leaders like Sunil Bansal and Amit Malviya played crucial roles in strategising and executing the campaign effectively.
In fact, where the party earlier struggled to appoint booth agents, it adopted a more professional approach this time. Recruitment was done in an organised manner, almost like a formal selection process, where young men and women were brought in after proper screening and evaluation. As a result, booths that were once left unattended now had workers present. This significantly improved their outreach and ground-level presence.
Because of this stronger organisational setup, the dissatisfaction that had not translated into votes earlier, especially regarding the education sector, has now clearly been reflected in the ballot box. There has also been widespread discontent about the deteriorating condition of the education system. Even the governor had, on multiple occasions, raised concerns about the functioning of universities. All of this contributed to a growing sense of frustration among people.
The next major point is industry and de-industrialisation. Since the exit of the Tata project, there has been a visible stagnation in large-scale industrial development in the state. Investment summits were organised, announcements were made, and proposals came in, but in reality, very few of them materialised into substantial investments. Many large industrialists initially showed interest but eventually backed out.
As a result, the state has witnessed a steady decline in industrial growth, leading to fewer job opportunities and increasing economic dissatisfaction. This lack of industrial progress has further deepened public discontent, adding another layer to the reasons behind the electoral outcome.
Finally, structural factors also played a role. Processes like voter list revisions (often referred to in political discussions as SIR) are believed by the BJP to have influenced outcomes, especially in border districts. Without such factors, many of these shifts may not have translated as effectively into votes.
In the end, it was not one wave but many currents converging. Anti-incumbency, organisational fatigue, shifting voter loyalties, identity politics, and strategic campaigning all combined to reshape the electoral landscape.
Mamata Banerjee did not lose the plot because of a single misstep. It was the cumulative weight of BJP’s strategic uplift, along with Mamata’s multiple changes, some gradual, some sudden, that altered the outcome.
Assam
Himanta scripts Assam hat-trick as Cong slides further
The BJP-led NDA swept Assam for a third consecutive term with a record 102-seat haul, cementing Himanta Biswa Sarma’s dominance while exposing the Congress’ deepening decline in a state once central to its Northeast politics.
Assam witnessed a decisive mandate as the ruling NDA returned to power for the third consecutive term, winning a record 102 seats in the 126-member Assembly. The BJP, contesting 90 seats, emerged as the dominant force with 82 victories, while its allies—the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)—won 10 seats each. For the first time, the saffron party secured a clear majority on its own, surpassing its previous tally of 60 seats in both 2016 and 2021.
The opposition delivered a dismal performance. The Congress, which contested 99 seats, managed only 19 victories, marking one of its worst showings in recent memory. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Raijor Dal secured two seats each, and the Trinamool Congress won a single constituency. Other opposition players, including the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), CPM, and APHLC, failed to win any seat.
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, contesting from Jalukbari, won the constituency for the sixth consecutive term, defeating Congress candidate Bidisha Neog by a margin of 89,434 votes. In a significant setback for the Congress, state president Gaurav Gogoi lost in Jorhat to veteran BJP MLA Hitendranath Goswami by 23,181 votes.
Speaking from the BJP state headquarters, Sarma hailed the victory as a reflection of the “good work of the government” and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s focus on Assam’s development. He accused the Congress of indulging in caste politics and attempting to exploit the death of singer Zubeen Garg for electoral gain, which he said contributed to the party’s poor performance.
Calling the outcome “an unprecedented victory,” Sarma celebrated the alliance’s success on X with the post: “Hat-trick with a century!” He credited disciplined campaign planning and direct voter outreach, highlighting Modi’s guidance during the election run-up.
Meanwhile, taking responsibility for the party’s poor showing, senior Congress leader Jitendra Singh resigned as the general secretary in-charge of Assam with immediate effect.
The electoral verdict underscores the consolidation of the BJP in Assam, a historic shift in the state’s political landscape, and a continuing decline of Congress influence in the region.
Kerala
Left loses last citadel in Kerala
The Congress-led UDF swept Kerala, ending the Left’s last major bastion and intensifying questions over its national relevance.
The Congress-led UDF swept Kerala, ending the Left’s last major bastion and intensifying questions over its national relevance.
Kerala renamed Keralam witnessed a historic political upheaval as the Left Democratic Front (LDF) suffered a sweeping defeat in the Assembly elections, reduced to just 35 seats in the 140-member House. For the first time in six decades, the Left is out of power entirely across India, raising urgent questions about the future of Left politics in the country.
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) surged to a commanding victory, winning 102 seats—well above the majority mark of 71. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) also made inroads, securing three seats and highlighting the emergence of a tri-polar political landscape in parts of the state.
The scale of the UDF’s triumph reflects deep voter dissatisfaction with the LDF. Traditional Left supporters appeared to cross party lines, seeking a “corrective mandate” after a decade marked by perceptions of administrative stagnation, allegations of nepotism, and the growing concentration of power within the office of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
The anti-incumbency wave hit hard: 13 sitting ministers, including prominent leaders, were defeated. Within the LDF, the CPM was limited to 26 seats, the CPI secured eight, and the RJD retained one.
Among the victors, the Congress emerged as the main force with 63 seats, while the Indian Union Muslim League strengthened its position with 22. Other winners included Kerala Congress (Joseph) with seven seats, Independents with four, the Revolutionary Socialist Party with three, and smaller parties like the Revolutionary Marxist Party of India, Kerala Congress (Jacob), and Communist Marxist Party capturing a single seat each.
Kerala had long been an exception to the Left’s national decline, alternating power rhythmically between LDF and UDF. The LDF’s retention in 2021 suggested a potential consolidation, but over-reliance on Chief Minister Vijayan as a singular, polarising figure made the coalition vulnerable. With no decentralised leadership or secondary mobilising narrative, the party faced an unbuffered collapse when public sentiment shifted.
The Congress party has officially named V.D. Satheesan as the next CM of state.
The results leave the Left, particularly the CPM, at a crossroads. Analysts suggest that introspection and strategic recalibration are urgently needed if the Left hopes to remain relevant in Kerala and on India’s national stage.
Tamil Nadu
Vijay’s TVK surge stuns DMK
TVK, led by actor Vijay, stormed Tamil Nadu politics, humiliating the DMK and scripting a steep electoral rise within just two years.
TVK, led by actor Vijay, stormed Tamil Nadu politics, humiliating the DMK and scripting a steep electoral rise within just two years.
Film star Vijay’s political outfit, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), made history in Tamil Nadu by emerging as the single-largest party in the state assembly elections, securing 107 seatsout of 234—just shy of an outright majority.
Launched just over two years ago, TVK has upended the state’s political landscape, defeating the mighty DMK, whose leader and incumbent Chief Minister M.K. Stalin had gained national prominence in recent years as a key figure in the INDIA bloc, advocating federalism and positioning himself as a strong critic of the BJP.
The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) managed only 74 seats, a sharp decline of 81 seats compared to 2021.
This marks an unprecedented achievement in Tamil Nadu’s electoral history: a party winning so decisively within just a few years of its formation. By comparison, the DMK took three electionsto dethrone the Congress in 1967, while the AIADMK, led by actor M.G. Ramachandran (MGR), needed five years to secure its first state victory.
The elections also saw a rare unseating of a sitting chief minister. Stalin lost his seat, which had elected him three times since 2011, while Vijay won Perambur (North Chennai) and Tiruchirapalli East with commanding margins. The AIADMK-led alliance, pushed to third place, managed victories in only 53 constituencies.
