A rethink of Kashmir’s winter economy as snow plays truant

When Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah recently remarked, “If I don’t have snow, I can’t sell Gulmarg,” he was not merely making a tourism pitch. He was articulating a deeper, unsettling reality: Kashmir’s economy, ecology, and identity are increasingly hostage to a rapidly changing climate. Speaking at the annual convention of the Adventure Tour Operators Association of India (ATOAI) in Srinagar, Abdullah openly acknowledged what many in the Valley have been witnessing for years — receding glaciers, shrinking snowfall, and growing uncertainty around winter tourism. His suggestion that Kashmir may need to turn to artificial snow-making technologies to sustain skiing in Gulmarg marked a significant shift in public discourse, signalling that climate change is no longer a distant concern but a present-day crisis demanding adaptation. This winter has offered stark evidence. Kashmir is experiencing an unusually dry and snowless season, marked by bright blue skies and sunlit days more reminiscent of early spring than deep winter. While the warmth may appear benign on the surface, its consequences threaten to cascade through multiple sectors — tourism, agriculture, hydropower, and water security. A Winter Without Snow November and December, which usually witness the snowfall, have passed largely dry. December recorded an 86 percent rainfall deficit. Most plains across the Valley have not received snow, while the upper reaches have seen significantly below-average snowfall. More troubling is the absence of any immediate forecast suggesting a sustained return of snow, particularly in the plains. All eyes are now on Chilai Kalan, the harshest 40-day phase of winter beginning on December 21 when Kashmir typically receives its heaviest snowfall. Its first day saw some modest snowfall on upper reaches, so there is hope that more may follow including in the plains.  A dry Chilai Kalan is rare, though not unprecedented; similar conditions were last recorded in 2015 and 2018. However, the growing frequency of such winters has heightened alarm among scientists. Data shows that nine of the past 28 winters have been largely snowless, three of them in the last decade alone. While historical records over the past 127 years do indicate occasional dry winters, scientists say the long-term trend over the last five to six decades is unmistakable: snowfall volumes have declined sharply. Where plains once received nearly a metre of snow, they now see only a few inches — a shift largely attributed to global warming.