A rethink of Kashmir’s winter economy as snow plays truant

Agriculture Under Stress Climate shifts are also unsettling Kashmir’s horticulture sector, particularly apple cultivation, which forms the backbone of the rural economy. Apple trees require a specific number of chilling hours during winter to flower properly in spring. Warmer winters and erratic precipitation are disrupting this cycle. Basharat Bhat, an orchardist from Budhan village in north Kashmir’s Baramulla district, says unseasonal snow and rain have led to fluctuating yields. “Changing weather patterns affect pollination,” he explains. “Low temperatures or rainfall during the flowering stage reduce fruit set, directly impacting production.” Such disruptions threaten not only farm incomes but also export volumes and employment across the apple value chain. A Larger Climate Pattern Meteorologists note that Kashmir’s weather is influenced by complex interactions between western disturbances, local topography, and global climate systems. However, broader trends are impossible to ignore. Rising global temperatures, deforestation, increased vehicular emissions, and higher energy use for heating are all contributing to long-term warming across the Himalayan region. The El Niño phenomenon, driven by abnormal warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, has further altered global weather patterns, often resulting in drier winters and reduced precipitation across South Asia. Recent winters in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh have mirrored this trend, with snowfall weakening or arriving well beyond its usual window. A Crisis Demanding Choices The snowless winter unfolding in Kashmir is no longer an anomaly — it is a warning. The Valley stands at a crossroads where climate change threatens to erode economic stability, ecological balance, and cultural rhythms tied to the seasons. Artificial snow may keep ski slopes operational, but it cannot replenish glaciers, recharge aquifers, or sustain rivers. Long-term solutions will require climate-resilient planning, reduced emissions, forest conservation, water management reforms, and honest recognition that the old climatic certainties no longer apply. As Omar Abdullah’s blunt remark underscores, Kashmir cannot sell winter without snow. The larger question now confronting the region is whether it can adapt fast enough to survive a future where snow itself can no longer be taken for granted.